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What You Need to Know Ahead of Bristol-Myers (BMY) Q4 Earnings
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Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 2, before market open.
The company’s shares have lost 20.7% in the past six months compared with the industry's 0.3% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bristol-Myers beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 2.89%. In the previously reported quarter, the company beat estimates by 13.64%.
Bristol Myers Squibb Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Total revenues in the fourth quarter are likely to have been boosted by growth in in-line product revenues and new product portfolio revenues. Increased sales of the key immuno-oncology drug Opdivo on consistent label expansions for newer metastatic and adjuvant indications is likely to have boosted the top line in the fourth quarter. Demand is also being driven by growth in first-line lung, upper gastrointestinal and adjuvant bladder cancer indications. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for sales of Opdivo is pegged at $2.3 billion.
The blood thinner drug Eliquis was one of the top revenue generators in the last reported quarter, owing to strong demand in the United States. The solid performance of the drug in the United States is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter. However, pricing pressure and generic competition in Canada and the U.K. have likely pulled down total sales to some extent. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Eliquis is pegged at $2.8 billion and our estimate is pinned at $2.7 million.
Pomalyst’s sales were impacted in the third quarter due to increased patients receiving free drug products from the company’s patient assistance program. This may have affected sales in the to-be-reported quarter as well. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug is pegged at $851 million and our estimate is pinned at $878 million.
Arthritis drug Orencia increased in the previous quarter and is likely to have witnessed the same trend in the fourth quarter.
An increase in Yervoy sales on label expansions is likely to have boosted sales in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Yervoy sales are pegged at $612 million and $660 million, respectively.
Among the new products, Reblozyl posted strong growth in the last reported quarter due to continued total prescription share growth, driven by longer treatment durations in the United States and reimbursement in additional countries outside the United States.
Sales in the fourth quarter are likely to have seen an increase in the drug’s label expansion. The FDA approved Reblozyl (luspatercept-aamt) as a first-line treatment of anemia in adults with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes who may require transfusions. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Reblozyl sales are pinned at $281 million and $269 million, respectively.
Strong growth in Opdualag (first-line melanoma) sales is likely to have fueled top-line growth in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Opdualag sales are pinned at $177 million and $172 million, respectively.
Breyanzi sales are expected to have seen increased uptake and sequential growth, primarily driven by demand in second-line and third-line large B cell lymphoma and the increased manufacturing capacity.
Zeposia sales are likely to have increased as well. International sales have increased primarily due to demand for multiple sclerosis and securing reimbursement in additional countries. Sotyktu sales, too, have likely seen growth on increased uptake.
However, Abecma's revenues are likely to have been impacted by competition. The decline in Revlimid’s revenues from generic erosion across several countries has likely pulled down the top line.
Operating expenses are likely to have declined in the low single digits on a year-over-year basis.
Recent Key Developments
BMY recently acquired commercial-stage oncology company Mirati Therapeutics, Inc. for $58.00 per share in cash, amounting to a total equity value of $4.8 billion. The acquisition added Mirati’s lung cancer drug Krazati (adagrasib) to BMY’s strong oncology portfolio.
In December, BMY also announced two back-to-back acquisitions, Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. and RayzeBio, as the company looks to expand and strengthen its portfolio in light of generic competition for two of its most significant drugs.
What Our Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Bristol-Myers this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for BMY is -5.26%, as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pinned at $1.65 per share. The Most Accurate Estimate is presently pegged at $1.57 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
NVO beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed once, the average earnings surprise being 0.58%. Shares of Novo Nordisk have gained 53% in the past year.
GSK PLC (GSK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.20% and a Zacks Rank #3.
GSK topped earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.02%, on average.
Merck (MRK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +41.75% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Merck topped earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.80%, on average.
Image: Bigstock
What You Need to Know Ahead of Bristol-Myers (BMY) Q4 Earnings
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 2, before market open.
The company’s shares have lost 20.7% in the past six months compared with the industry's 0.3% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Bristol-Myers beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 2.89%. In the previously reported quarter, the company beat estimates by 13.64%.
Bristol Myers Squibb Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Bristol Myers Squibb Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Bristol Myers Squibb Company Quote
Factors at Play
Total revenues in the fourth quarter are likely to have been boosted by growth in in-line product revenues and new product portfolio revenues. Increased sales of the key immuno-oncology drug Opdivo on consistent label expansions for newer metastatic and adjuvant indications is likely to have boosted the top line in the fourth quarter. Demand is also being driven by growth in first-line lung, upper gastrointestinal and adjuvant bladder cancer indications. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for sales of Opdivo is pegged at $2.3 billion.
The blood thinner drug Eliquis was one of the top revenue generators in the last reported quarter, owing to strong demand in the United States. The solid performance of the drug in the United States is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter. However, pricing pressure and generic competition in Canada and the U.K. have likely pulled down total sales to some extent. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Eliquis is pegged at $2.8 billion and our estimate is pinned at $2.7 million.
Pomalyst’s sales were impacted in the third quarter due to increased patients receiving free drug products from the company’s patient assistance program. This may have affected sales in the to-be-reported quarter as well. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of the drug is pegged at $851 million and our estimate is pinned at $878 million.
Arthritis drug Orencia increased in the previous quarter and is likely to have witnessed the same trend in the fourth quarter.
An increase in Yervoy sales on label expansions is likely to have boosted sales in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Yervoy sales are pegged at $612 million and $660 million, respectively.
Among the new products, Reblozyl posted strong growth in the last reported quarter due to continued total prescription share growth, driven by longer treatment durations in the United States and reimbursement in additional countries outside the United States.
Sales in the fourth quarter are likely to have seen an increase in the drug’s label expansion. The FDA approved Reblozyl (luspatercept-aamt) as a first-line treatment of anemia in adults with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes who may require transfusions. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Reblozyl sales are pinned at $281 million and $269 million, respectively.
Strong growth in Opdualag (first-line melanoma) sales is likely to have fueled top-line growth in the fourth quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our estimate for Opdualag sales are pinned at $177 million and $172 million, respectively.
Breyanzi sales are expected to have seen increased uptake and sequential growth, primarily driven by demand in second-line and third-line large B cell lymphoma and the increased manufacturing capacity.
Zeposia sales are likely to have increased as well. International sales have increased primarily due to demand for multiple sclerosis and securing reimbursement in additional countries. Sotyktu sales, too, have likely seen growth on increased uptake.
However, Abecma's revenues are likely to have been impacted by competition. The decline in Revlimid’s revenues from generic erosion across several countries has likely pulled down the top line.
Operating expenses are likely to have declined in the low single digits on a year-over-year basis.
Recent Key Developments
BMY recently acquired commercial-stage oncology company Mirati Therapeutics, Inc. for $58.00 per share in cash, amounting to a total equity value of $4.8 billion. The acquisition added Mirati’s lung cancer drug Krazati (adagrasib) to BMY’s strong oncology portfolio.
In December, BMY also announced two back-to-back acquisitions, Karuna Therapeutics, Inc. and RayzeBio, as the company looks to expand and strengthen its portfolio in light of generic competition for two of its most significant drugs.
What Our Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Bristol-Myers this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for BMY is -5.26%, as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pinned at $1.65 per share. The Most Accurate Estimate is presently pegged at $1.57 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
NVO beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed once, the average earnings surprise being 0.58%. Shares of Novo Nordisk have gained 53% in the past year.
GSK PLC (GSK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.20% and a Zacks Rank #3.
GSK topped earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.02%, on average.
Merck (MRK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +41.75% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Merck topped earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.80%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.